Because YOLO
Written By: Chris Booth
Ok so we're hurting
Inflation was 8.8% last year and will be about 6.5% this year. The leading Interest rate is at 5.15% and will go up. Global GDP growth will grow a meager 1.3% and our savings accounts will erode . Meanwhile, we're more into deglobalization than ever and we're more fearful of migrants than we care to admit.
And yet, travel continues to boom?
International tourism grew +86% in Q1 this year. Global airline seats have pretty much returned to pre-pandemic levels. And, the Q1 earnings of major booking platforms are all up: Expedia +20%, and highest bookings ever. Trip advisor bookings +47%. Air BNB bookings +20%, and now 2x the volume since before the pandemic, with half of all bookings cross-border and a whopping 20% of stays now being longer than a month.
How can we reconcile the inexorable rise of travel with the downward shift in the economy?
Because YOLO.
YOLO speaks to millennials and Gen Z - collectively "Zillennials" - who are reimagining their lives and careers as a result of the Pandemic. What began as a pop reference - and grew as a hashtag - represents something that might well be more profound than we are ready to realise.
Why? Because YOLO is defined by loss. It is pain relief, and pain relief is more potent than pleasure enhancement.
YOLO is a reaction to a loss of liberty probably not seen in the west since WW2; loss of the present, loss of personal freedom of movement, and loss of family.
YOLO is also a reaction to a loss of trust; in our institutions, in for-profit companies, and in each other. This loss of trust is compounded by a sense of anticipated loss of future prosperity from the greatest wealth transfer in history, from the energy rich young to the asset rich old. The New York times described this as a "deeper, generational disillusionment, and a feeling that the economy is changing in ways that reward the crazy and punish the cautious."
And, YOLO is a reaction to a loss of connection. In a world of technological dispersion, there is a gap between our desire to feel cultural connection and the internet's ability to deliver it. Loneliness is staggeringly high. This sensory deprivation has primed the YOLO generation for something more.
But most of all, YOLO is a reaction to path dependence, and sensing a loss of viable options, the YOLO generation are instead replacing them with entirely alternative futures.
This is an act of optimism.
With the finiteness of life in living memory, and the futility of tomorrow within view, its understandable for impermanence to become a safe space for optimists to find meaning. Build up? Not worth it. Draw back? That's a regression. Get out? Let's go, life's short.
Seeking restoration from nihilistic imperatives, disillusionment, loneliness and langour, YOLO is an attempt for a disaffected generation to allow their optimistic selves to prevail against a deep sensation of scepticism and uncertainty. YOLO might seem reckless, even irrational, but is a nonetheless understandable response to what just is.
"Stars, hide your fires; let light not see my black and deep desires".
This might seem fringe, but when you consider that today Zillennials collectively make up over 50% of the world's population, the impact is profound.
Welcome to the YOLO economy
YOLO is today an economic force shaping work, property, capital, consumption, culture and mobility. Geared for permanent optionality, opportunism, amusement, and personal autonomy, it is fixed asset light and highly fluid, atomizing and decentralizing work, entrepreneurship, investment, and population.
The YOLO economy is experimental. It is about staying ready for anything and feeling at home anywhere. Equipped differently, motivated by emotion, and powered by half the world's population, it looks set to change what just is, in ways that only make sense if you're one of them.
Putting the travel boom in context
In 2023 the top 3 motivations for travel are:
Experiences in search of local community
Solo travel in search of others
Business-adjacent opportunism, adding leisure travel onto business trips.
Without movement we lose energy. Without travel we lose inspiration. Without the unknown we lose discovery. Without exchange we lose understanding. Without diversity we lose authenticity. And, without seeing the world through an immigrant’s eyes we lose empathy. Never, it would seem, has it been more human to go out into the world than now.
Travel, it seems, continues to be the preferred eject button to escape the status quou. To hell with the weather.